📘 MERCED COUNTY CEDS 2025–2030

GOVERNMENT-FORMAT COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

A Distributed, Dual-Engine Rural Development Strategy Grounded in Working-Class Stability

1. SUMMARY BACKGROUND

Merced County is a rural, majority working-class, majority Latino county composed of distinct communities:

  • Merced (City)

  • Atwater

  • Los Banos

  • Livingston

  • Delhi

  • Winton

  • Dos Palos

  • Gustine

  • Planada

  • Le Grand

  • Franklin–Beachwood

The County contains two major economic assets:

1. UC Merced

A federally funded research university with high R&D potential, and the newest UC campus, capable of developing a countywide talent pipeline.

2. Castle Commerce Center

A major logistics and advanced manufacturing hub with aviation infrastructure and industrial capacity.

Yet, Merced County faces:

  • severe housing affordability mismatch

  • limited behavioral-health capacity

  • workforce shortages

  • small-business fragility

  • internal displacement pressures

  • inequitable infrastructure investment in rural towns

  • low-wage employment patterns

  • commute burdens on the Westside

  • climate risk for Eastside communities

A new CEDS must balance economic growth with community stabilization across every city and unincorporated community, not only Merced City.

2. SWOT ANALYSIS

Strengths

  • UC Merced research & talent

  • Castle airfield + industrial zone

  • Agricultural heritage & supply chains

  • Multilingual working-class labor force

  • Strategic location between Bay Area & Central Valley

  • Strong immigrant entrepreneurship

Weaknesses

  • BHRS instability

  • Chronic underinvestment in rural communities (Delhi, Dos Palos, Winton, Planada, Le Grand)

  • Inadequate transit connectivity

  • Housing mismatched to local wages

  • Workforce gaps in trades, health tech, and logistics

Opportunities

  • Water & Ag-climate innovation

  • UC Merced tech-transfer capacity

  • Advanced manufacturing at Castle

  • Renewable/clean energy sector

  • Rural workforce centers

  • Small business expansion

Threats

  • Outside displacement pressures

  • Bay Area income spillover

  • Climate/flood impacts (Planada, Le Grand)

  • Behavioral-health crisis

  • Corporate acquisition of residential & agricultural land

  • Small business closures during development

3. GOALS & OBJECTIVES

Goal 1 — Community Stabilization Precedes Growth

  • Expand behavioral-health services countywide

  • Build stabilization facilities

  • Tie affordability to local wages, not regional AMI

  • Improve rural infrastructure

  • Protect legacy small businesses

Goal 2 — UC Merced as a Countywide Innovation Engine

  • Create research-to-career pipelines

  • Expand community-based education

  • Integrate UC Merced with Atwater, Los Banos, Dos Palos, Gustine, Livingston, Delhi, Winton

  • Ensure countywide tech-transfer benefits

Goal 3 — Castle as an Industrial & Logistics Engine

  • Attract advanced manufacturing

  • Require local hiring priorities

  • Build rural workforce ladders

  • Develop trades & aviation technology programs

  • Establish employer accountability through community benefit agreements

Goal 4 — Agriculture + Science Integration

  • Ag-tech innovation in Los Banos, Delhi, Livingston, Dos Palos, Atwater, Gustine

  • Water-tech pilots countywide

  • Climate & flood resilience (Planada, Le Grand)

  • Strengthen small & mid-scale farms

Goal 5 — Countywide Labor Partnerships (AFSCME + Employers)

  • Establish a Stability Compact

  • Expand apprenticeship programs

  • Establish wage floors tied to cost of living

  • Strengthen community-worker mobility pathwayss

4. STRATEGIC PROJECTS

Project A: Rural Corridor Workforce Centers

(Los Banos, Winton, Livingston, Delhi, Gustine, Dos Palos)

Project B: Behavioral Health Expansion

Stabilization site + mobile crisis units

Project C: UC Merced–Castle Innovation District

Project D: Local-Hire Manufacturing Zoning at Castle

Project E: Eastside Resilience Infrastructure

(Planada, Le Grand)

Project F: Small Business Preservation Fund

5. IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

Years 1–2

  • BHRS audit & stabilization framework

  • Housing ordinance reform (local AMI)

  • Launch Rural Workforce Centers

  • Begin UC + AFSCME + Merced College Workforce Council

  • Form UC–Castle Innovation Council

  • Initiate Small Business Preservation Fund

Years 3–5

  • Operationalize stabilization centers

  • Expand Castle manufacturing zone

  • Launch Westside ag-tech clusters (Los Banos, Dos Palos, Gustine)

  • Complete Eastside resilience upgrades

  • Launch countywide digital apprenticeship platform

6. EVALUATION METRICS

  • Local hiring percentage increases

  • BHRS wait-time reductions

  • Housing affordability index (local AMI)

  • Small business retention rates

  • R&D dollars secured

  • Eastside resilience improvement metrics

  • Workforce certification completions

7. ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

  • Disaster planning for Eastside communities

  • Water and climate innovation sector

  • Sustainable agriculture industries

  • Long-term behavioral-health funding

  • Anti-displacement housing protections

  • Multicity economic diversification (all 11 communities)